Analysis

How Syrian rebels overthrew the Assad regime in just over a week

Sky News has geolocated and analysed over 60 videos taken since the rebel offensive in Syria started, which show how they advanced through major cities and ousted Bashar al Assad.

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How the rebels capture of Syria unfolded
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Seizing military bases, toppling regime statues, freeing prisoners and capturing major cities – this is just a fraction of what Syrian rebel forces have achieved in just over a week.

Sky News has tracked the shock offensive that has ousted President Bashar al Assad, using over 60 geolocated videos that show how they advanced through major cities and captured the capital Damascus.

While Assad, who has now left the country, had earlier vowed to "crush" the offensive, visual evidence shows how quickly his regime has fallen.

This is how the offensive unfolded.

Until just over a week ago, Assad's Russian-backed forces controlled much of Syria.

Now the opposition groups - led by the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) - a former al Qaeda affiliate previously known as the Nusra Front - have captured three of Syria's major cities including its capital and ousted the regime.

The fall of Aleppo

Rebels began the surprise offensive from the northern province of Idlib before attacking areas to the north and northwest of Aleppo, Syria's second largest city which has been under Assad's control since 2016.

In the space of just three days, rebels pushed out government forces. Footage from 29 November shows lines of students evacuating from the University of Aleppo as opposition forces closed in.

Later that day, just two kilometres south of the university, HTS members filmed themselves at a statue of Assad's deceased brother, taking down the regime flag.

The next day, Syria's military announced a withdrawal from the city - Aleppo fell to the rebels.

Assad forces attempted defence

After defeat in Aleppo, Assad's forces attempted to defend other cities and towns. They headed to Hama, a city 120km south of Aleppo - where geolocated videos posted on 30 November show a line of tanks as Assad's forces awaited the rebels.

These are among the few videos which show efforts by regime forces during the offensive.

On 2 December, Russian and Syrian jets struck the rebel-held city of Idlib in the north, which for years had been the last anti-regime stronghold in Syria.

Videos show the aftermath of a deadly attack near Idlib University Hospital; the strikes that day killed at least 25 people.

Rebels move to Hama

Next, the rebels moved towards Hama city, 120km south of Aleppo. We verified footage taken on 3 December showing opposition forces in Al Amqiyah and Halfaya, a village and a town in the Hama governorate.

On 4 December, the rebels posted videos of a military base they'd seized in the Hama province signalling that they were not only able to take large cities, but also to seize key military sites. Taken from inside a vehicle, the footage shows the empty base - with regime forces nowhere to be seen.

The next day, on 5 December, rebels captured Hama city - the provincial capital - as the military withdrew its troops marking the seizure of a second major city and a significant setback for the regime.

Footage posted by rebels on 5 December shows prisoners being freed from the notorious Hama prison, as family members and friends hugged each other as they were reunited.

Rebels capture Homs

With Aleppo and Hama now under rebel-control, opposition forces made their way to Homs a city in western Syria - under 50km south of Hama and around 150km south of Aleppo.

Homs sits on a major crossroad, linking Damascus to the north and Syria's Mediterranean coast provinces of Latakia and Tartus, where the majority back Mr Assad and home to a Russian naval base and air base.

On the evening of 5 December, videos emerged of hundreds of people attempting to flee Homs as the rebels drew closer. Footage shows long queues of cars stuck in traffic as people tried to leave the city and head west.

The next day, the rebels are seen in a number of villages within a 10km radius of Homs. We geolocated footage of anti-Assad convoys advancing through the towns of Talbiseh and Ter Maela and greeted by civilians - showing just how close they were to the major city.

While the world's attention was mostly focused on rebel advances heading south from Aleppo and Hama, the regime's hold over territory in the east and south of the country was also deteriorating.

By 6 December, we geolocated footage that showed the rebels had taken Deir el-Zor, a major city on the eastern fringes of the regime's territory. The same day, several locations were captured in Daraa Governate, putting new pressure on Damascus from the south.

Then, the next day, on 7 December, the rebels declared they'd captured Homs.

Regime's last stand

Finally, the opposition forces moved around 130km south to Damascus - home to the presidential palace.

From here little resistance against the rebels was seen. Videos from 8 December show Syrians walking inside the Muhajireen Presidential Palace while other videos show posters of Assad being ripped from a hospital.

Celebrations have continued on the streets of the city as other videos show people leaving Damascus's ministry of finance with bags.

Russia, one of Assad's key allies, said the Syrian president has left office and Syria after giving orders for there to be a peaceful transfer of power.

Mr Assad has since arrived in Moscow with his family, a Kremlin source told Russia's state-run TASS news agency.

While many did not anticipate the scale and speed of the rebel offensive in Syria and many questions remain over the political future of the country, this offensive marks the end of a 54-year Assad rule in Syria.